News / Weekly Energy Report - Weekly solar output hits 7-week high

Weekly Energy Report - Weekly solar output hits 7-week high

Find out what happened in the energy market last week with the Haven Power market report. Here’s our 7-day summary starting Monday 19th August:

  • Average solar output rose from 1.65GW to 2.2GW week-on-week.
  • A fall in wind output helped support day ahead power prices.
  • Seasonal power products lost value after carbon and gas prices fell.
  • Planned and unplanned gas outages supported short term National Balancing Point (NBP) prices.

Read more below:

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Prompt/Day-ahead Power

The day-ahead price for Monday 19th August fell following high solar generation and lower system demand at the end of week 33. Wind output also fell slightly in this period, without having a significant impact on prices.

Prices for Tuesday 20th August surged higher due to falling wind output, leading to the need for an increase in gas supply to meet system demand. As a result, the National Balancing Point (NBP) prompt traded higher.

The day-ahead price for delivery on Wednesday 21st August fell slightly because of rising wind generation levels and a falling power demand on the system. Despite this, the NBP gas day-head price moved up on the day – partly due to an unplanned outage on the Culzean gas field.

The prompt price for Thursday 22nd August was mostly unchanged day-on-day, as average wind output increased and put pressure on prices. However, this pressure was offset by bullishness (price increases) on the NBP prompt caused by the situation at Culzean continuing. Originally due to end on 21st August, the ongoing outage restricted supply to the UK system by up to 122GWh.

Prices for Friday 23rd August moved higher thanks to support from falling wind output. The NBP prompt also helped bolster the power prompt, as the flows into UK gas terminals decreased. Reduced output from Norwegian gas fields (due to planned maintenance) partly explained this downturn in flows, as did the continuing Culzean gas field outage.

2019-08-27 pricingreportgraphs1

Imbalance Prices

The highest imbalance price of week 34 – £80.70/MWh – was on Saturday 24th August during settlement period 43 (21:00 - 21:30), set by offers from Cruachan Power Station. This is a 440MW capacity pumped storage hydroelectric plant situated near Loch Awe in Argyll and Bute, Scotland.

The lowest system price of the week was £5.00/MWh, on Monday 19th August over settlement period 35 (17:00-17:30). The price was set by bids to reduce the volume of generation from Pembroke Power Station; a 2GW capacity gas fired plant in Pembrokeshire, Wales.

2019-08-27 pricingreportgraphs3

Renewables and other

Following the high levels of generation at the end of week 33, wind output began week 34 strongly and averaged 9.75GW on Monday 19th August. However, by midnight of the next day, output had fallen to 2.8GW. It rebounded over the course of Wednesday 21st August and peaked that evening at 10.85GW.

Solar maintained consistent peaks between 6-6.5GW from Monday to Wednesday before dropping on Thursday 22nd August to 4.9GW.

Wind output reached its weekly high that Thursday too, reaching 12.6GW during the early evening. After this peak, generation levels fell steadily until hitting just 1.05GW on the morning of Sunday 25th August. Weekly wind output was down from 7.8GW to 6.25GW on a week by week basis.

During Friday 23rd August and the weekend, solar outputs jumped higher, with peaks averaging 7.75GW. This high level of generation raised the average for the whole of week 34 to 2.2GW; up significantly from the 1.65GW average seen in week 33. It was also the highest weekly solar average since week 27.

2019-08-27 pricingreportgraphs4

Seasonal Contracts

Secure and promote* (seasons +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts were down by an average of £1.32/MWh over week 34.

Monday 19th August saw secure and promote contracts post losses as they followed losses on the equivalent NBP contracts. Gains in carbon and coal helped prevent losses on the power curve from extending any further.

Prices for these contracts moved slightly higher on Tuesday 20th August, following modest gains on the NBP and, to a lesser extent, upward movement on Rotterdam coal. Power contracts saw prices rise too, despite losses on Dec-19 EUA carbon driven by bearishness in global equity prices.

On Wednesday 21st August, these contracts moved slightly higher on average as NBP gas and Brent crude oil both made gains = although these were capped as a result of EUA carbon’s losses on the day. This bearish sentiment in EUA carbon put pressure on UK power curve products. As of week 34, front year carbon prices have fallen by €4.12/t since reaching their all-time high of €29.95/t (per tonne) on 24th July. NBP gas equivalent products moved lower on the day; in addition, Brent crude futures had made losses by the end of the trading session.

Curve power prices moved down further on Friday 23rdAugust, as carbon prices continued to drop; curve NBP contracts also made day-on-day losses.

2019-08-27 pricingreportgraphs2

*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.

Annual Power

The annual power graph shows how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently winter 19 and summer 20.

2019-08-27 annual-prices

To help you make sense of the industry, you can also use our jargon buster and handy guide to Third Party Costs (currently 60% of your bill). And for interesting articles and useful insights, look out for our blog.

Report written by Thomas Stebbings and Ben Symonds and George Goodhew - Haven Power’s Portfolio Analysts. To speak to them, or the rest of our Flex & Portfolio Management team’s analysts, call 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.

Disclaimer

Although we’ve made all reasonable effort to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, Haven Power Limited gives no warranty - express or implied - in respect of this information. Furthermore, our provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and readers should not take it as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions. You should make any such decision based on your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.

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